新兴世界停下了追赶的脚步？EM ex-China growth slips below that of developed world

Emerging markets, by definition, are meant to emerge. Strip out China, however, and the economies of the developing world are now growing more slowly than the developed world for the first time since 1999.

新兴市场，顾名思义，是注定要崭露头角的。然而，不包括中国在内，发展中世界当前的经济增速低于发达世界，这是2009年以来首次出现这种情况。

Emerging markets ex-China eked¹ out output growth of just 1.92 per cent last year, according to IMF data, below even the spluttering growth of the developed world, where output rose 1.98 per cent.

国际货币基金组织(IMF)的数据显示，不包括中国在内的新兴市场去年仅勉强取得1.92%的产值增长，比发达世界1.98%的增长率还低。

Moreover, this plays down the travails² of those living in developing countries: when their faster population growth is taken into account, the underperformance of EMs vis-à-vis developed countries in per capita terms is starker³ still.

而且，这没有充分反映出发展中国家居民的艰辛：如果考虑它们的人口增长较快，按人均水平计算，新兴市场增长落后于发达国家的状况就更加明显了。

In other words, China aside, the universe of emerging countries is no longer on course to converge⁴ with the richer world. Instead, it is falling further behind.

换言之，不包括中国在内的新兴世界不再继续向富裕世界趋同。相反，它落后的程度在加深。

“The disappearance⁵ of the EM-DM growth differential should be a particular cause of concern,” said Guillermo Mondino, head of emerging markets research at Citi.

花旗(Citi)新兴市场研究主管吉列尔莫•蒙迪诺(Guillermo Mondino)表示：“新兴市场与发达市场增速差异的消失值得多加关注。”

“It’s called lack of convergence. The theory suggests that emerging markets ought to be growing faster than developed markets and catching⁶ up [but] I think [the emerging world] is probably going into a little bit of a recession now,” added Mr Mondino, who defined an EM recession as growth significantly below the potential rate.

蒙迪诺称：“这被称为缺乏趋同性。按照趋同理论，新兴市场增长应该快于发达市场，逐步追赶后者，（但）我认为（新兴世界）现在可能有些衰退。”蒙迪诺将“新兴市场衰退”定义为经济增速显著低于潜在增长率。

The futures⁷ of billions of people will depend on whether this reversal of the trend towards convergence proves to be a blip, or whether it is instead the strong showing of emerging countries during the 2000-2014 period that ultimately turns out to have been anomalous⁸.

几十亿人的未来将取决于这种趋同的逆转是一个暂时现象，还是新兴国家在2000年至2014年期间的强劲表现最终证明是异常的。

If the rapid industrialisation of China during this period, which spurred the commodity “supercycle” — spreading the benefits across much of the emerging world — proves to be a one-off step change, the danger is that there could be a return to the norms of the 1980s and 1990s. Then growth in EMs ex-China typically lagged behind that of the developed world, as the first chart shows.

如果中国在此期间的快速工业化——由此催生了大宗商品“超级周期”，让许多新兴国家受益——证明是一次性的变化，新兴世界就有可能回到上世纪八九十年代的状况。在当时，如第一张图显示，不包括中国在内的新兴市场增长通常落后于发达世界。

One argument against this is that many EM countries, such as India, Turkey and South Korea, are, in fact, net commodity importers. As such, it might be sensible to think they should be able to grow more strongly in the current environment than when commodity prices were at unprecedented⁹ highs.

反对这种观点的一个理由是，许多新兴市场国家，比如印度、土耳其和韩国，实际上是大宗商品净进口国。因此，以下这种观点可能是合理的：与大宗商品价格处于空前高位的时期相比，这些国家在当前环境下的增长应该更为强劲。

In other words, low commodity prices should be redistributive (transferring wealth from Brazil to India, for example) rather than reducing growth across the EM world.

换言之，大宗商品价格低企应该起到再分配作用（例如将财富从巴西转移至印度），而非削弱整个新兴市场的增长。

Analysis by Citi casts doubt on this, however. Its data suggest that, since the late 1970s, there has been a reasonably strong correlation¹⁰ between capital flows into emerging markets and the oil price, as the second chart shows.

然而，花旗的分析让人对这种说法产生怀疑。其数据表明，自上世纪70年代末以来，新兴市场的资本流入与油价之间存在很强的相关性，如第二张图所示。

Mr Mondino said this reflects the recycling of petrodollars from oil exporters to emerging markets in general, which Citi describes as a “robust¹¹, albeit¹² mysterious, phenomenon¹³”.

蒙迪诺表示，这反映石油美元通常从石油出口国循环至新兴市场的情况，花旗将这称为一个“强烈却神秘的现象”。

“High oil prices supported EM GDP growth in the 1970s by increasing the availability of external financing. We think lower oil prices in the second half of the 1980s helped to make that decade a growth disaster by helping¹⁴ to prevent any recovery in the flow of capital to EM.

“在上世纪70年代，高油价加大了外部融资的可获得性，从而支持了新兴市场的GDP增长。我们认为上世纪80年代后五年里油价下跌阻止了新兴市场资本流入的复苏，从而导致新兴市场在那十年的增长乏力。”

“And in the 2000s, high oil prices helped to support capital flows and robust growth,” said Mr Mondino. “Now, in the midst of a very sharp fall in oil prices, capital flows to EM are in a state of collapse¹⁵.”

蒙迪诺表示：“在本世纪头十年，高油价帮助支持了资本流动和强劲增长。现在，在油价急剧下跌情况下，新兴市场的资本流入处于崩溃之中。”

If this analysis is correct, it suggests that emerging markets will struggle to attract significant capital inflows unless and until the oil price recovers.

如果这种分析是正确的，那么在油价复苏之前，新兴市场将很难吸引大量的资本流入。

Moreover, with the differential between EM ex-China and DM growth now negative, Mr Mondino feared that “one of the main pillars of the investment case for EM is being eroded¹⁶”.

另外，鉴于不包括中国的新兴市场当前经济增速低于发达市场，蒙迪诺担心，“投资新兴市场理由的主要支柱之一正受到侵蚀”。

He added: “There used to be a virtuous¹⁷ circle that connected capital flows, EM GDP growth and the oil price: strong growth supported the oil price, which supported capital flows through petrodollar recycling and, in turn, plentiful¹⁸ capital inflows supported growth.”

他补充称：“曾经存在一个良性循环，将资金流动、新兴市场GDP增长和油价联系在一起：强劲增长支撑油价，油价通过石油美元循环支撑资金流动，相应的，大量的资金流入又支撑了经济增长。”

Given that the aggregate¹⁹ current account balance of 15 large oil exporters will turn negative this year for the first time since 1998, according to forecasts from the IMF, “it seems as though this has now turned into a vicious circle,” Mr Mondino concluded.

根据国际货币基金组织(IMF)的预测，今年，前15个产油大国的经常账户差额总和将出现自1998年以来的首个负值。有鉴于此，蒙迪诺总结称：“如今良性循环似乎变成了恶性循环。”

Despite this, Citi’s central forecast is that growth in EM ex-China will gradually rise back above that of the developed world in the next year or so, with EM ex-China growth recovering to a little over 3 per cent in 2017, although David Lubin, head of emerging markets economics at Citi, suggests the risks are to the downside.

尽管如此，花旗的核心预测是，除中国以外的新兴市场增速差不多明年将逐渐重新超过发达国家，除中国以外的新兴市场增速将在2017年恢复到略超过3%的水平。不过花旗新兴市场经济主管戴维•卢宾(David Lubin)认为，增速面临下行风险。

Others are also reasonably optimistic. Tom Becket, chief investment officer at PSigma Investment Management, believed the bulk²⁰ of the EM slowdown happened last year, and growth is now flattening²¹ out.

其他人也相当乐观。PSigma Investment Management首席投资官汤姆•贝克特(Tom Becket)认为，新兴市场放缓主要是在去年发生的，增长正在进入平台期。

“What we are probably seeing now is a stabilisation at a low level in emerging market economies. These levels are probably more sustainable,” he said.

他表示：“我们现在可能看到，新兴市场经济体在一个低水平上企稳。这一水平或许更可持续。”

Nicolas Schlotthauer, head of emerging markets fixed²² income at Deutsche Asset Management, said he did not see a trend towards even weaker growth in emerging markets, despite the headwinds, arguing that energy importers would benefit from lower oil prices.

德意志银行资产管理公司(Deutsche Asset Management)的新兴时候固定收益主管尼古拉斯•施罗特豪尔(Nicolas Schlotthauer)表示，尽管存在不利因素，但他不认为新兴市场增长会进一步放缓，他认为，能源进口国将从低油价中受益。

As for Citi’s fear that low oil prices will deprive all EMs of capital, Mr Schlotthauer was confident of replacement²³ inflows, such as public-private partnerships²⁴ in the infrastructure²⁵ field. He also argued domestic sources of finance, such as pension funds and insurance companies, could take up some of the slack in a number of EMs.

花旗担心，低油价将切断所有新兴市场国家的资本流入，但施罗特豪尔相信会有替代性资金流入，例如基础设施领域的公私合作。他还认为，在一些新兴市场国家，国内融资来源（例如养老基金和保险公司）可能会填补部分空缺。

Mr Mondino, though, feared that sluggish²⁶ economic growth in EMs could lead to damaging policy responses, such as a sharp rise in protectionist measures witnessed in recent years.

然而，蒙迪诺担心，新兴市场疲弱的经济增长可能会导致破坏性的政策回应，例如最近几年看到的保护主义措施大大增加。

“We are seeing a gradual move away from globalisation, more frequent use of barriers to capital mobility²⁷ and a gradual weakening of the inflation targeting framework that many EMs had adopted,” he said, citing Turkey, Brazil and Mexico of examples of the latter.

他表示：“我们看到它们正逐渐放弃全球化、更多地使用限制资金流动的壁垒，同时很多新兴市场国家已采用的通胀目标框架正逐渐削弱。”他举了土耳其、巴西和墨西哥的例子来说明后一种问题。

“We clearly see a weakening of the policy framework that was a critical backbone²⁸ of the positive EM story of the past decade. It’s being eroded on the margin²⁹.”

“我们清楚的看到，这种政策框架正在削弱，它是过去10年新兴市场被看好的重要依据。它的边缘正受到侵蚀。”